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The effect of forest management on forest distribution under climate change

Willian Vieira, PhD candidate
Isabelle Boulangeat, Robert Bradley and Dominique Gravel

WillVieira/talk_STM-QCBS2018

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Challenge: future distribution under climate change

McKenney et al. 2007 BioScience

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Trees are lagging behind climate change

Talluto et al. 2017 Nat. Ecol. Evol.

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Trees are lagging behind climate change

Forest management?

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Transitory dynamic under perturbation

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Transitory dynamic under perturbation

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Transitory dynamic under perturbation

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Transitory dynamic under perturbation

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Transitory dynamic under perturbation

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Transitory dynamic under perturbation

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How management practices affect the distribution of forest to climate change?

1. What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?

2. Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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State and Transition Model

Temperature

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State and Transition Model

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State and Transition Model

P(T|R)=[αT(T+M)]

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State and Transition Model

P(T|R)=[αT(T+M)]×(1p)+p

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State and Transition Model

P(R|B)=[ε]

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State and Transition Model

P(R|B)=[ε×(1h)]+h

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State and Transition Model

P(M|B)=[βT(T+M)]

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State and Transition Model

P(M|B)=[βT(T+M)]×(1e)+e

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State and Transition Model

P(T|M)=[θ×θT]

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State and Transition Model

P(T|M)=[θ×(1s)+s]×[θT×(1s)+s]

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How management practices affect the distribution of forest to climate change?

1. What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?

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What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?


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What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?


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What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?


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What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?


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How management practices affect the distribution of forest to climate change?

1. What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?

2. Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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Spatially explicit model

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Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

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Conclusion

What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?

  • Resilience
  • Delta Abundance

Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest?

  • Thinning + enrichment > plantation > harvest
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Enrichment and plantation can increase the northward shift of the Quebec forest





Special thanks to

Daniel Houle

Bill Shipley

Dominique Arseneault



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Challenge: future distribution under climate change

McKenney et al. 2007 BioScience

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