class: middle, title-slide # The effect of forest management on forest distribution under climate change ### .large[Willian Vieira], PhD candidate <br> .small[Isabelle Boulangeat, Robert Bradley and Dominique Gravel] <i class="fa fa-github fa-2x" style="color:#335049"></i> [WillVieira/talk_STM-QCBS2018](https://github.com/willvieira/talk_STM-QCBS2018) --- ## Challenge: future distribution under climate change .center[  ] .cite[McKenney et al. [2007](https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/57/11/939/234280) BioScience] --- ## Trees are lagging behind climate change .center[] .cite[Talluto et al. [2017](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0182) Nat. Ecol. Evol.] --- ## Trees are lagging behind climate change .center[] ### .center[Forest management?] --- ## Transitory dynamic under perturbation <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Transitory dynamic under perturbation <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-4-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Transitory dynamic under perturbation <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-5-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Transitory dynamic under perturbation <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-6-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Transitory dynamic under perturbation <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-7-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Transitory dynamic under perturbation <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-8-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: inverse, center, middle # How management practices affect the distribution of forest to climate change? ### 1. What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? ### 2. Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] .large[.center[Temperature]] --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(T|R) = [\alpha_T (T+M)]$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(T|R) = [\alpha_T (T+M)] \times (1 - p) + p$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(R|B) = [\varepsilon]$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(R|B) = [\varepsilon \times (1 - h)] + h$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(M|B) = [\beta_T(T + M)]$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(M|B) = [\beta_T(T + M)] \times (1 - e) + e$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(T|M) = [\theta \times \theta_T]$$` --- ## State and Transition Model .center[] `$$P(T|M) = [\theta \times (1 - s) + s] \times [\theta_T \times (1 - s) + s]$$` --- class: inverse, center, middle ## How management practices affect the distribution of forest to climate change? ### 1. What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-9-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? <br> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-11-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? <br> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-13-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-14-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? <br> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-15-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-16-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? <br> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-17-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-18-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- class: inverse, center, middle # How management practices affect the distribution of forest to climate change? ### ~~1. What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase?~~ ### 2. Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? --- ## Spatially explicit model  --- ### Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-20-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-22-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-23-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ### Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? <img src="index_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-24-1.svg" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> --- ## Conclusion ### What is the impact of management practices on the transitory phase? - Resilience - Delta Abundance ### Which management practices increase the northward shift of forest? - Thinning + enrichment > plantation > harvest --- class: inverse .pull-left1[ # **Enrichment** and **plantation** can increase the northward shift of the Quebec forest <br> <br> <br> <br> **Special thanks to** Daniel Houle Bill Shipley Dominique Arseneault ] .pull-right1[ <br> <br>  ]