Diagnostics mortality model

Rhat

Divergent transitions

Posterior distribution of parameters

Correlation between parameters

Plot random effect

Correlation in plot random effects between species

Changes in plot random effect from past models

Compare plot random effect with last model to check how variance is changing.

Data distribution

Predictions

Species longevitity intercept: exp(psi)

Mean annual temperature effect

Mortality in function of fixed effects

Accuracy

Using four different metrics:

  • Sensitivity measures the percentage of dead trees that are identified as dead
  • Specificity measures the percentage of alive trees that are correctly identified as alive
  • Accuracy is the ratio of number of correct predictions to the total of predictions
  • Accuracy balanced considers unbalanced accuracy predictions of positive and negative events (sensitivity and specificity)

Population level mortality rate

Out-of-bag cross-validation

OOB population level mortality rate

Leave-one-out cross-validation to compare models

Sampling time