MCMC diagnostics - recruitment

Test v5.0 - Ingrowth model accounting for ingrowth and mortality of new individuals with plot random effect and basal area efffects on ingrowth rate m with immigration parameter.

Rhat

Divergent transitions

Posterior distribution of parameters

Correlation between parameters

Plot random effect

Plot random effect in function of annual mean temperature and basal area

Changes in plot random effect from past models

Compare plot random effect with last model to check how variance is changing.

Data distribution

Predictions

Ingrowth in function of time

Basal area effect

Ingrowth in function of Basal area of adults

Cross-validation

Mean squared error (MSE)

Rsquared

The distribution of R squared values is calculated using the Gelman et al. 2018 definition.

We also calculated the \(R^2\) from the linear model using the 1:1 plot comparing observed values to the predicted values.

Leave-one-out cross-validation to compare models

Sampling time